You are about to ask for a salary, or to answer a supplier who has sent a quote. Somebody is going to say a number first, and you have probably been told two contradictory things about it: that whoever names the first number loses, and that you should always open high. Both are half right, and which half applies depends on one question. Who knows more about what this is worth?
What the first number does
The first number in a conversation becomes the reference point for everything after it. Once 90,000 is on the table, 82,000 is "8,000 below" and 95,000 is "5,000 above". Nobody is evaluating the job any more; they are evaluating distance from 90. Adjustments away from a reference are almost always too small, because each step away feels like a concession and concessions feel expensive. The anchor also changes what people look for. A high number sends the other side searching for reasons the deal might justify it. A low number sends them searching for flaws.
This works on experienced negotiators, and it works when the number is plainly self-serving. Knowing about it does not switch it off. That is why the first number matters so much: it is not an opening position, it is the frame every later position gets measured against.
The first number is not an opening position. It is the ruler everyone uses afterwards.
When to go first
Go first when you know what the thing is worth. If you have market data, three comparable quotes or the salary band for the role, you lose nothing by naming a number and you gain the frame. Go first when you have a real walk-away alternative, because an ambitious anchor is only dangerous if you cannot afford to have it refused. Go first when the range is wide and nobody has a settled reference: the first plausible number will become the reference anyway, so it may as well be yours.
Wait when you do not know their range. If a supplier's cost structure is opaque to you, or you have no idea what this company pays for this role, your anchor might land below what they were prepared to give. You would have anchored against yourself, and they will not correct you. Wait when they clearly know more than you do. And wait when going first would mean guessing: a guess that is far too high costs you credibility, one that is too low costs you money, and you cannot tell which you have made.
In practice the rule is: close the information gap first, then anchor. Three questions usually do it. "What range did you have in mind for this role?" "What is the quote based on?" "What did the last comparable contract look like?" If the answers tell you the range, you go first. If they do not, you keep asking.
How to set an anchor that holds
An anchor has to be ambitious and it has to be justified, and the second part is what most people skip. An ambitious number without a reason is a demand; the other side ignores it and names their own. An ambitious number with a reason is a reference they have to argue with.
- Put it at the edge of what you can defend. Not the most you can imagine, but the most you can give a straight-faced reason for. If you can say why, it holds. If you would have to look at the floor, it is too high.
- Attach the reason in the same breath. "I'm looking at 96,000, which is where the market sits for this scope at this level." The reason is part of the anchor. It is what makes the number hard to dismiss.
- Use a precise number. 96,000 says you have done the sums. 100,000 says you rounded. Precision signals knowledge, and knowledge is what makes an anchor stick.
- Say it calmly, then stop talking. The most common way to undo your own anchor is to keep speaking: "but I'm flexible, of course." Name the number, give the reason, hold the pause.
How to neutralise theirs
When they go first, the trap is to counter from their number. If a supplier quotes 50,000 and you answer "could you do 45?", you have accepted 50 as the reference and you are now negotiating a 10 per cent discount. The pull of the anchor is already working on you.
Instead, do three things. Name it as their number, not the number: "That is your starting point." Ask what it rests on: "Walk me through how you got to 50." Then reset to your own reference rather than theirs: "The comparable quotes I have are around 38. That is where I'm working from." You have not haggled against 50. You have put a second anchor on the table and made them argue with it.
If their number is far from anything you can defend, say so and leave. "That is a long way from what I expected. Let me come back to you." Distance from the room weakens the pull of a number more than anything you can say inside it.
Example lines
A salary conversation
You know the band. You go first: "Based on the scope we have discussed and what the market pays for it, I'm looking at 96,000. Here is how I get there." Then stop.
You do not know the band. You ask first: "What range has been approved for this role?" If they answer, you anchor at the top of it, or just above, as far as you can defend. If they ask you first, hold your ground once: "I'd rather hear the range you are working with, so we can see where it lands." If they press, give a range whose bottom is the number you actually want: "Somewhere between 96 and 104, depending on the scope."
They name a number below yours: "I understand 84 is where you are starting. The data I have puts this role at 96, and that is the reference I'm working from. What would it take to get there?"
A supplier quote
You have three quotes and they are close together. You go first: "We are budgeting 38,000 for this scope, which is where the other quotes sit. Can you work with that?"
You have only their quote and do not know the market. You ask: "What is driving the number? Which parts of the scope are the expensive ones?" and "If we moved the timeline, what would that change?" Let the answers show you the shape before you say anything.
They quote 50 and you expected 40: "Fifty is further from our reference than I expected. Our figure for this is 38. Help me understand what is in the gap."
At your own table
Before the next conversation, write down what you know about the market and what you do not. If you know enough, write your anchor and the one sentence that justifies it. If you do not, write the three questions that will close the gap. Either way, write your reset line for the moment they go first, so you do not counter from their number out of reflex. That reflex, and the pause after your own number, decide most of this, and they are hard to rehearse against a colleague who knows the script. On Pacct you can run the salary conversation or the supplier call out loud against an AI counterpart that anchors first and pushes back, and the debrief shows you where the pull got you.
